Tactical 2017
Did Tactical2017 affect any seat outcomes?
The data suggests that we did. Although the Conservatives increased their share of the vote in 2017, they won fewer seats overall and lost their majority in parliament.
According to the UK's Electoral Reform Society: "Despite Labour and the Conservatives gaining over 80% (82.4%) of the vote share between them, a look under the surface shows this was no return of two-party politics. Our research suggests that voters did not flock back to the two largest parties with enthusiasm. Millions of voters planned to vote tactically this election, with 20% saying they would be choosing the candidate that was most likely to beat the one they disliked. This is over double the proportion who said they would do so in 2015. Projecting this onto actual turnout would equate to nearly 6,500,000 people voting tactically."
Some seats were very close calls and the Conservatives lost by a margin of fewer than 50 votes. These same seats all received at least 2000 vews on Tactical2017.com in the run up to the election. Take Kensington for example: around 7800-15000 people used Tactical2017 to see the recommendation for that seat (Labour) and Labour won by just 20 votes. We are confident that if those 7800-15000 people hadn't used Tactical2017 then the Conservatives would have held on to it.
How the tactical voting sites lined up in 2017 where it mattered most - the key swing seats.
NOTE: Some of the blank seats have been coloured for ease of comparison - this does NOT indicate an endorsement from these sites. To be clear - blank spaces are NOT endorsements, no matter the colour.
| Constituency | Tactical 2017 | Best For Britain | Progessive Alliance (Compass) | More United | The Guardian | Stop The Tories |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Bedford | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Berwick-upon-Tweed | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | SNP | SNP | SNP | |||
| Bolton West | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Brentford and Isleworth | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Brighton Kemptown | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Bristol North West | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Bury North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Cardiff North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Cheadle | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem |
| Cheltenham | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Chipping Barnet | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| City of Chester | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Colchester | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Copeland | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Corby | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Crewe and Nantwich | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Croydon Central | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Derby North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Dewsbury | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | SNP | SNP | SNP | SNP | ||
| Ealing Central and Acton | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| East Devon | Independent | Independent | TBC | |||
| Eastbourne | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Eastleigh | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | ||
| Enfield North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Enfield, Southgate | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Finchley and Golders Green | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Gower | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Halesowen and Rowley Regis | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Halifax | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Harrow East | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Hazel Grove | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Hendon | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Hove | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Ilford North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Ipswich | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Kensington | Labour | Labour | Labour | |||
| Kingston and Surbiton | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Lancaster and Fleetwood | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Lewes | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem |
| Lincoln | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Morley and Outwood | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| North Cornwall | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | ||
| North Devon | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | ||
| Northampton North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Norwich North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Oxford West and Abingdon | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Peterborough | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Plymouth, Moor View | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Portsmouth South | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Richmond Park | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Rochester and Strood | Labour | Labour | Labour | |||
| Somerton & Frome | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | ||
| Southampton, Itchen | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| St Austell and Newquay | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | ||
| St Ives | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem |
| Stockton South | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Sutton and Cheam | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem |
| Taunton Deane | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |||
| Telford | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Thornbury and Yate | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Thurrock | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Torbay | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Twickenham | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Vale of Clwyd | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Warrington South | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Warwickshire North | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Waveney | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Weaver Vale | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | |
| Wells | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | |
| Wirral West | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Wolverhampton South West | Labour | Labour | Labour | Labour | ||
| Wycombe | Labour | Labour | Labour | |||
| Yeovil | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem | Lib Dem |
How we performed in the 2017 General Election
At a glance:
Seats where we could have affected the outcome: 100% accuracy
Seats where we could not have affected the outcome: 89% accuracy
All seats: 565 correct
69 incorrect (mostly safe Tory seats where tactical voting cannot change the outcome)
16 no recommendation
(Correct means where we accurately predicted the party with the best chance of beating the Conservative candidate.)
The nature of safe seats makes it extremely unlikely that tactical voting can change the outcome. (in some safe seats it is even impossible)
Because of this we are unlikely to make a recommendation in the same way in these areas in the future.
2017 Recommendations
You can view all of our recommendations and their outcomes below.